A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
